Regression Model :monthly volume forecast model is not satisfied
Hi Team,
I am trying to do monthly volume forecast by customer with kind of regression models by using historical monthly vol (2022-07 ~ 2023.12). The model test and predict result is: R^2 is 0.8-0.9 but MAPE is always 0.56-0.9. However, when i implemented the trained model with new data (2024-01), the predicted volume vs 2024-01 actual volume has quite huge gap, which is not acceptable.
I have preprocessed my historical data to get customer monthly volume, past one month, past 2 month, past 3 month till past 6 month vol, also get past 1 year vol. Besides, i sum holiday# per month as an impacted feature
I am not sure where i can improve and how i can improve my model. Can anyone have such experience to improve my model accuracy.
Here is my KNIME flow (trained data).
