Issues with ARIMA-Learner Node

Dear community,

I m having issues with the ARIMA-Learner-Node.

I would like to create a predictive forecast for sales of hardware, for the next 12 months. I tried using ARIMA-nodes, but I get strange results. Especially concerning the AR-Order (see Screenshot 1). The model predicts exactly same amout of sales as it is in the training-data - ALWAYS for the amount of months written here in the AR-Order. Is this how it is supposed to be? Like this it is hard to interpret R^2 with numeric scorer…

Can you help me, is there a better way for ARIMA-Sales-Forecasting?

Greetings

Jakob

ARIMA - Knime.xlsx