Basketball Predictions and projections
Hello Knime family! I’m a fairly new user who is a cartoon animator on a deep dive about basketball (NCAAM) analytics, predictions, forecasts, formulas, modeling, and so on. I’ve been using Knime for 2-3 weeks as a no-code, low-code user for a few hours each day.
I’ve found some much older posts about sports predictions like an 8 year old post about basketball, and another against bookmaker odds like Hans Samson’s awesome work covering football/soccer matches, which has been my main source for inspiration. I’ve spent 3-4 weeks prior to this finding basketball metrics data, schedules and the like, and researching Bill James’ log5 formula, and ideas from other famous basketball statisticians like Nate Silver, Bart Torvik, John Hollinger, Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy for winrate expectation and probabilities. I’ve exhausted what little I can find on youtube with directly relevant knime tutorials (Mostly by Dhaval Maheta), and I’m just looking for tips/advice on this workflow and how to improve from more data/finance/statistics minded people. I will try to show my current workflow below with the excel spreadsheet of some metrics I have. I’ve been able to get some simple linear regressions down for my metrics against wins and/or winrate. but have been unable to get naive bayes and other ML models to work for me. Humbly looking for some tutelage.