ARIMA/SARIMA possible?
Dear community,
I am struggling with Time-Series-Forecast and since i was not able to create a proper model so far I thought I could ask you for initial assessment if it is possible anyway.
This is how my timeseries looks like, I would like to create an forecast for the next 12 months. Each bar represents 1 month.
Of course I tried to cut the numeric outliers:
For p,d,q i tried using Parameter Optimization Loop (Range: 0 to 5 for each) to find the best combination of these 3.
This is how the heart of my model looks like:
What is your opinion, is (S)ARIMA even possible with my dataset or am I going to fail anyway? Is it not enough “stationary”?
Best
Jakob